BCG: Confidence is returning to Nigeria
While the SA Trade Desk is primarily focused on trade, investment and industrial development within South Africa, we remain acutely aware of the opportunities presented by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The deepening of intra-African trade means that developments in other major economies on the continent matter – not only for regional value chains, but for South African exporters, investors and policy-makers tracking growth corridors beyond our borders.
It is against this backdrop that the latest research from Boston Consulting Group (BCG) on Nigeria’s business outlook makes for compelling reading.
Nigerian executives signal renewed confidence
According to the Nigeria Executive Outlook Survey (end-2025), nearly three-quarters of Nigerian executives report feeling optimistic about the business environment heading into 2026. More than 80% expect to integrate Generative AI (GenAI) into their organisations within the next 24 months.
The research, led by Tolu Oyekan, Managing Director and Partner at BCG Lagos, was conducted in collaboration with Lagos Business School, Pan-Atlantic University and Chartered Institute of Directors Nigeria. It draws on insights from 100 business leaders operating across Nigeria.
After several years marked by macroeconomic volatility, currency dislocation and policy uncertainty, Africa’s third-largest economy appears to have stabilised. Recent reforms undertaken in 2025 have improved macroeconomic fundamentals, with investors forecasting GDP growth above 4.4% in 2026.
With a population exceeding 230 million – projected to approach 400 million by 2050 – Nigeria remains one of the continent’s most significant and diverse markets, spanning commodities, energy, financial services and technology. For South African corporates with a pan-African footprint, and for those looking to expand northwards under the AfCFTA framework, these signals of renewed confidence are noteworthy.
Four imperatives for growth
While optimism is returning, the BCG research underscores that growth will not be automatic. Executives identified four strategic imperatives critical to capitalising on the upswing:
1. Plan with optimism – but build resilience.
Confidence may be rising, but uncertainty has not disappeared. Leaders are encouraged to embed flexibility into their strategies and ensure their operating models can withstand stress scenarios.
2. Invest in capabilities that unlock value.
Thirty-five percent of respondents cited leadership and talent gaps as the primary internal constraint to execution. Redirecting capital and leadership focus towards closing capability gaps – particularly in data, execution discipline and organisational agility – will be central to sustainable growth.
3. Move from AI pilots to real programmes.
With 83% of leaders expecting to integrate GenAI within 12 to 24 months, the emphasis is shifting from experimentation to implementation. This includes structured talent development, responsible AI frameworks and measurable commercial outcomes.
4. Build the muscle to execute.
Transformation requires more than strategy decks. It demands cross-functional alignment, disciplined programme management and a sustained focus on delivery.
As Oyekan notes, growth will favour those who balance investment in tools and capabilities with rigorous execution.
Why this matters for South Africa
For South African exporters, investors and policymakers, Nigeria’s stabilisation carries broader implications. A more confident and growing Nigerian economy could strengthen regional supply chains, stimulate demand for goods and services, and enhance the overall promise of the AfCFTA.
At the SA Trade Desk, we will continue to monitor developments not only at home but across key African markets. As trade corridors deepen and African economies become more interconnected, shared growth stories matter.
We would be particularly interested to hear from entrepreneurs and executive leadership teams operating in Nigeria. Are you experiencing this renewed optimism on the ground? Are reforms translating into tangible improvements in business conditions?
Share your perspective in the comments section below – your insights help enrich the conversation around trade, investment and growth across the continent.
