AfCFTA: Unlocking Africa’s Critical Minerals for industrial growth and global influence
Author: Tristan Peel, Alize Capital
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) represents Africa’s strategic pathway to transform its abundant critical minerals into engines of industrial growth, higher incomes, and poverty reduction amid rising global demand. AfCFTA could bring substantial job creation and wealth generation across the continent by unlocking higher-value processing and regional manufacturing.
Rare earth elements (REEs) and other critical minerals such as cobalt, lithium, manganese, and graphite dominate international discussions. Major economies compete to secure supplies vital for electric vehicles, wind turbines, renewable energy systems, and advanced technologies. Global demand for magnetic REEs is projected to triple from 59 kilotons in 2022 to 176 kilotons by 2035, driven by the energy transition and electrification trends.
Africa’s strong position in global reserves
Africa holds a commanding position with nearly 30% of the world’s critical mineral reserves, including around 55% of global cobalt (largely in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which supplies about 70% of output), significant manganese (around 47-76% depending on resources vs reserves), and notable graphite and lithium deposits in countries such as Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Mozambique, and Ghana (UNU-INRA, 2026; Brookings Institution, 2026). Emerging REE projects in Tanzania (Ngualla), Malawi (Songwe Hill), and South Africa (Steenkampskraal and Phalaborwa) are advancing, with several targeting production starts or feasibility completion by 2026-2029, potentially positioning Africa to contribute up to 9% of global REE supply.
The current challenge and AfCFTA’s transformative role
Africa currently captures only a fraction of the value from its critical minerals, often exporting raw ores while processing occurs abroad, leading to lost revenues, limited job creation, and vulnerability to global price swings and supply chain disruptions. This perpetuates economic dependency on foreign markets and hinders industrial development. AfCFTA addresses these issues by creating a unified market that enables efficient regional value chains: minerals extracted in resource-rich nations like the DRC or Zimbabwe can be transported tariff-free for refinement in industrial hubs such as South Africa or Ghana.
Progressive tariff reductions on over 90% of lines, combined with rules of origin that incentivise continental sourcing, lower costs and encourage local beneficiation. This not only boosts value capture through higher-value products like battery precursors, magnets, and electronic components but also diversifies economies, reduces exposure to commodity volatility, and fosters technological upgrades, ultimately building resilience against external shocks.
Practical enablers driving progress
Intra-African trade grew by 7.7% in 2024, reaching higher levels with AfCFTA momentum. Innovations like the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS), now linking more central banks, cut cross-border costs, reduce foreign currency reliance, and speed payments for mineral-related deals, making regional supply chains more viable for small and medium enterprises.
Delivering inclusive economic benefits
These mechanisms promote holistic African development. Value addition generates higher-wage employment in processing and industry, raises household incomes, and channels revenues into infrastructure and social programmes, lifting millions from poverty. Full AfCFTA implementation could boost intra-African trade by up to 45% by 2045 and add 1.2% to continental GDP.
Partnering for sustainable success
External partners play a supportive role through investments that mandate local content, technology transfer, and sustainable practices, turning competition for minerals into collaborative opportunities. Recent examples include the US International Development Finance Corporation’s commitments, such as over $1 billion for projects like the Lobito Corridor linking Zambia, DRC, and Angola, and new strategic investments in critical minerals to enhance supply chain resilience.
The EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act supports partnerships focused on traceability and local beneficiation, while initiatives from the US, China, and Gulf states offer financing for processing and infrastructure. These partnerships provide the initial capital, expertise, and market access Africa needs to launch regional value chains, accelerate beneficiation, and build long-term industrial capacity without relying solely on raw exports.
Seizing the moment
Africa’s moment has arrived. By accelerating AfCFTA rollout, harmonising policies, and investing in skills and infrastructure, the continent can secure economic sovereignty, supply the world’s green future, and deliver shared prosperity for its people.
This article was originally published on LinkedIn and is re-published with permission.
