SA Trade Desk Trends – January 2026
What are the major issues impacting South Africa and its major trading partners?
This is a question that we at the South Africa Trade Desk are constantly interrogating and looking to address.
While it is hard to look beyond the fractious relationship between South Africa and the US, we have identified other issues as well.
- What are SA Trade Desk readers searching for?
As a digital platform, we can analyse our website and Google data to understand what is on the minds of South Africa and its key trade partners.
Looking at our data, our 3 most popular articles in January 2026 were
- “BRICS+ innovation programme underscores SA’s deepening technology and trade ties with China” – this article looked at opportunities for South African SMEs looking to access the Chinese market.
- “Hard-hit local SMEs hope US tariff rulings will bring relief”, which incorporated insights from the TUNL SME Index
- “The new spice route: Why South Africa’s most valuable import from India isn’t oil or vehicles”, written by Eshmael Mpabanga, Country Head, Intellect Design Arena South Africa
In our Google Search Console, the following search phrases have had the highest search volumes.
- “South Africa Import Export News”
- “VFS Global Visa Services India 2026”
- “South Africa Oil Import Sources 2026”
- “American Companies in South Africa”
January data is always a bit mixed, as many readers and other stakeholders are still returning from annual leave, which can lead to inconsistencies in content.
- South Africa continues to diversify its energy mix
After nearly 2 decades of crippling energy shortages, which have discouraged foreign investment and decimated the manufacturing capacity in SA, the country is undergoing a significant shift in its energy mix.
According to data shared by The Outlier:
“In December 2025, three solar projects, Grootfontein 1, 2 and 3, and the San Kraal Wind Farm came online, adding a combined 365 MW to South Africa’s national grid. Since 2011, the government has held seven bid windows under the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP), contracting more than 12 GW of renewable capacity. About 60% of that capacity (7 GW) has now been built and is supplying electricity. This includes all projects from the first four bid windows and seven projects from bid window five.”
- BCG: New trade routes take shape
Christoph Schweitzer – CEO of the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) – touches on global trade in his message to stakeholders recently released on LinkedIn.
He notes:
“Last year was a turbulent environment for global trade. That turbulence is likely to continue for several years. Even so, my colleagues in BCG’s Centre for Geopolitics project that global trade will grow by about 2.5% annually over the next 10 years. That may be lower than in the past, but it is roughly at the level of global GDP growth. Trade isn’t dead!
Trade corridors and blocs, however, are reconfiguring. Our experts believe a multipolar trade patchwork scenario is the most likely outcome. Under this scenario, US goods trade will continue to grow, but slowly—around 1.5% annually—as tariffs now cover more than 60% of imports and policy favours domestic production. That doesn’t automatically imply weaker US growth, but it does mean a smaller share of global trade over time. China’s trade will grow faster than the US by deepening ties with BRICS+ economies and the broader Global South as it secures energy, food, industrial inputs, and new export markets.”
- Positive economic indicator
2026 has kicked off on the front foot with a positive data point – sentiment among civil contractors, as measured by the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index rose to a joint 11-year high in 2025Q4. The improvement in the business mood was supported by significantly better readings for activity growth and overall profitability.
- Floods, fires and foot in mouth disease are concerns for South Africa’s tourism and agriculture sectors
While South African trade conditions appear to be improving, the tourism and agriculture sectors have been buffeted by a series of challenges.
Floods in Limpopo and Mpumalanga have devastated these provinces, and Kruger National Park has been closed during peak tourism season. With rain continuing to fall, clean-up and recovery will take time.
Conversely, fires have wreaked havoc in the Western Cape, affecting numerous tourism hotspots and wine farms.
On top of this, South Africa is grappling with a significant Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreak, a highly contagious viral disease affecting cloven-hoofed animals such as cattle, sheep, goats and pigs. The disease has been reported across multiple provinces – notably KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng, Mpumalanga, Free State and North West – prompting extensive veterinary responses including vaccination drives, movement controls and quarantine zones.
The outbreak has inflicted heavy economic strain. According to government figures, the red-meat sector has lost an estimated R5.6 billion in export revenue due to market closures and restrictions. This has also impacted exports of products to major markets, including China and countries in the Middle East.
Are you feeling optimistic about South Africa in 2026?
From an SA Trade Desk perspective, it feels like South Africa is entering 2026 on the front foot, and we are quietly optimistic with a number of reforms starting to take hold.
We would love to hear from our community whether this optimism is justified. Let us know in the comments section below.
