Hard-hit local SMEs hope US tariff rulings will bring relief

Exports to the US down by 23% compared to pre-tariff levels

Small South African exporters await the ruling of the US Supreme Court of Appeals on tariffs, widely expected later today US time, with bated breath.

While larger businesses have been able to withstand much of the impact of adjusted tariffs, which came into effect in September 2025, small South African exporters were hit hard by US tariffs during the last quarter of 2025, the SME Export Index* shows. The Index is compiled by South African international shipping platform TUNL, based on a cohort of 1,850 companies.

Says Craig Lowman, TUNL CEO and co-founder, “Compared to Q2 2025, before the tariffs came into effect, the US-bound gross monthly volume (GMV) was down 22.8%.”

Christmas sales would normally increase volumes of shipments to the US significantly, but, as a result of the tariffs, volumes have sharply declined.

Lowman continues, “ A ‘normal’ fourth quarter is usually up by at least 20% from previous quarters. In effect, this represents close to a 50% swing against what SMEs would ordinarily expect at this time of year.”

By contrast, exports to the rest of the world followed their typical seasonal pattern, with non-US markets recording an 11.3% increase in Q4 volumes in line with normal year-end demand. This divergence underscores how uniquely disruptive the US tariff changes have been for small exporters.

“The trend is now clear,” says TUNL COO Aretha Cooper. “Local SMEs have effectively lost access to the US export market, even as demand elsewhere remains healthy. While some businesses are exploring opportunities in the EU and other regions, many are struggling to withstand the sudden loss of their largest market and are at risk of closing if the tariff situation isn’t resolved soon. There is real hope that today’s ruling will provide relief — even if it simply restores a workable de minimis threshold, relieving parcels valued below $800 from the new tariffs.”

About the SME Export Index

The SME Export Index is based on real-life export figures measured in gross merchandise value (GMV) of 1,850 South African SMEs who were exporting to the US before trade policy changes in 2025. (The balance of TUNL’s 3,000-odd merchant customers ship to more than 160 other countries.) These policy changes have materially impacted South African exporters. Possibly due to easier access to data, media have focused on large organisations in the steel, agriculture, and automotive industries, leaving SMEs and consumer brands invisible in the tariff debate. The SME Export Index provides the missing picture: a monthly barometer of how tariffs affect small exporters and global brands from South Africa. The fixed April 2025 baseline cohort of 1,850 merchants ensures data stability and credibility. You can find the index at sme-export-index.lovable.app.