SA Trade Desk Trends – May 2026

In international trade and industrial development, change is the only constant. For South African businesses, policy makers, and stakeholders, keeping a finger on the pulse of shifting market dynamics isn’t just an advantage—it’s a necessity for survival and growth. In our latest monthly trends wrap-up, the SA Trade Desk team highlights the key developments, supply chain movements, and policy shifts we’ve been tracking over the past few weeks. 

Here is what you need to know about where the industry is heading and how it impacts your bottom line.

What are our digital channels telling us? 

As a digital platform, we spend a lot of time interrogating our insights from our Google Search Console – this a key tool to understand what is topical to our readers and other stakeholders in the world of SA Trade. 

Here are some of the insights for May 2026.

The highest volume search phrases on the SA Trade Desk: 

• “Emerging fintech and banking hubs in Africa 2026”
• “Motheo Africa logistics Transnet freight rail 2026 operations”

Our three most popular reads in the last month: 

• OPINION: Stop deindustrialisation before it’s too late
• IFC and Standard Chartered partner on supply chain finance to support African businesses
• OPPORTUNITY: Outward selling mission to Canada – July 2026

Positive move: Moody’s ‘upgrades’ South Africa’s outlook

South Africa’s positioning in the global investment community has received a boost with the announcement from ratings agency Moodys. 

The agency upgraded its outlook on South Africa’s domestic and foreign-currency long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to positive from stable, while affirming the ratings at Ba2. While expected, this upgrade will support the reform agenda which has been driven through the Government of National Unity (GNU). 

China “zero tariffs” are a hot topic of discussion

China represents a very significant export market and many industries are excited by the proposed “zero tariff” regime which has come into being. An example of this being the South African Rooibos Council (SARC) pointing out that: 

• Rooibos exports to China have benefited from progressively improving market access in recent years. In 2024, China reduced import tariffs on Rooibos from approximately 15–30% to around 6%, enhancing the product’s competitiveness in the market.
• As of 1 May 2026, China has implemented a zero-tariff policy for imports from African countries, including South Africa. This effectively removes the remaining duty on Rooibos exports, marking a further step forward in market access rather than a first-time entry into China.

While these developments represent a genuine opportunity and are getting much airtime from policy-makers, some are cautioning that some of this rhetoric should be taken with a pinch of salt. 

According to researchers Dr. Davies Tsikayi and Jana de Kluiver from Africa International Advisors, the realities on the ground are much more complex. In their newly released paper, “The Limits of China’s Zero Tariff Policy: Structural Reforms needed to realise South Africa-China Trade Potential,” they argue that removing tariff barriers is only half the battle. Using detailed economic simulations, their findings indicate that under current domestic conditions, net export gains may remain modest. Instead of generating massive waves of entirely new demand, the policy risks simply causing “trade diversion” unless South Africa tackles its own deep-seated logistical and structural constraints.

Exports on the rise 

The team from Codera Analytics shared an interesting graph recently. The graph compares export values to the United States and the rest of the world and suggests a steady upward trend with a pleasing spike in March 2026. 

Tourism sector continues to boom 

The key tourism sector continues to enjoy a good run and be a positive contributor to the South African economy.

In May, Stats SA released tourism accommodation figures for the period March 2026 with the following findings: 

Measured in nominal terms (current prices), total income for the tourist accommodation industry increased by 12,1% in March 2026 compared with March 2025.

Income from accommodation increased by 14,1% year-on-year in March 2026, the result of an 11,1% increase in the number of stay unit nights sold and a 2,7% increase in the average income per stay unit night sold.

In March 2026, the main contributors to the 14,1% year-on-year increase in income from accommodation were:

• ‘other’ accommodation (22,9% and contributing 8,0 percentage points); and
• hotels (9,2% and contributing 5,4 percentage points).
  

Income from accommodation increased by 8,0% in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the first quarter of 2025. The main contributors to this increase were:

• ‘other’ accommodation (19,9% and contributing 6,5 percentage points); and
• hotels (1,7% and contributing 1,0 percentage point).

Seasonally adjusted income from accommodation increased by 2,0% month-on-month in March 2026, following an increase of 2,3% month-on-month in February 2026.

Contribute to the discussion around positive trade relationships

Trends are only part of the story; your perspective completes it. 

To ensure we continue driving meaningful, high-quality discussions around South Africa’s trade dynamics with major global partners, we want you to be part of the conversation. Engage with our content, share your feedback, and help us unpack what these shifts mean for the industry. The SA Trade Desk welcomes editorial submissions from practitioners and thought leaders alike—if you have an insight to share, we want to hear it. Get in touch with us today to submit your ideas or join our contributor network.