SA Trade Desk Trends – March 2026

Trusted by hundreds of readers in the South African trade ecosystem, the SA Trade Desk aims to be a reliable source of industry insights that ultimately helps our country do smarter trade with our key partners. 

To achieve this goal, we keep a keen eye on developments and look to analyse trends from across our network to identify opportunities for stakeholders wishing to deliver operational excellence. 

Here are some of the trends we have identified in March 2026.  

1. Iran war dominates 

Without question, the biggest trade development for the month of March has to be the War in the Middle-East and the impact that this will have on global trade routes.  

Francois Vreÿ from Stellenbosch University unpacks this topic In this opinion piece entitled: “The Iran war and global trade: will the Cape route become the new normal?” 

To support this discussion, the team from Codera Analytics have recently shared the below visual representation of flows through the Cape of Good Hope.  

We at the SA Trade Desk continue to watch developments with interest. 

2. What are our digital channels telling? 

Our digital assets – including our website – give us some good insight into what is relevant when it comes to our ecosystem and stakeholders. 

If we look at our Google Search Console data, these are the highest volume web searches around the SA Trade Desk: 

• Haier South Africa expansion
• Africa’s Business Heroes offer $1.5m grant for entrepreneurs
• Aimia JSE secondary listing
• South Africa Truck hijackings cargo theft / South Africa truck hijacking hotspots 
• Cross Border accelerator 

If we unpack these further: 

• “Haier South Africa expansion” would relate to the official launch of Haier South Africa in February 2026
• “Africa’s Business Heroes offer $1.5m grant for entrepreneurs” – relates to the launch of the latest edition of this annual competition for African entrepreneurs 

• “Aimia JSE secondary listing” – is the first new equity listing on the JSE in 2026 with the Toronto-based multinational taking a secondary listing on the bourse
• “South Africa Truck hijackings cargo theft / South Africa truck hijacking hotspots” – suggests a rise in awareness of truck hijackings in the country and organisations seeking data-driven insights around these crimes.  
• “Cross Border accelerator” – The recently launched Afreximbank Accelerator highlighting exciting entrepreneurial talent across Africa.  

High-ranking pages on the Google Search console include: 

• OPPORTUNITY: BRICS Cross Border Innovation Accelerator Program 2026
• Resetting the B-BBEE debate: New research offers measured insights for investors

Most read: 

Our 3 most popular reads over March to date: 

• Resetting the B-BBEE debate: New research offers measured insights for investors
• SA’s cargo risks and hijacking surge – why cargo theft is now a strategic risk
• ABH offers $1.5m in grant funding for African entrepreneurs

3. US Ambassador to South Africa ruffles feathers in first public address

In his first public address since arriving in South Africa, new US Ambassador Brent Bozell delivered a candid keynote that mixed optimism about the country’s economic potential with sharp warnings about the direction of bilateral relations. Speaking to the BizNews Conference audience and later in a short Q&A with Alec Hogg, Bozell praised South Africa’s entrepreneurial depth, financial sophistication and strategic importance to Washington, while arguing that policy uncertainty, BEE-related ownership requirements, expropriation fears, rural safety concerns and Pretoria’s alignment with adversaries such as Iran are undermining investor confidence.

The Ambassador’s comments drew a sharp response from his South African counterparts who summoned him to explain the associated context. 

Here is the full interview with Ambassador Bozell entitled: “Trade, Trust and Tough Truths” 

Manufacturing production and sales remain weak 

StatsSA recently released these figures for the period to end January 2026 and the South African economy continues to fail to build any momentum. 

Production: results for January 2026

Manufacturing production decreased by 0,7% in January 2026 compared with January 2025. The largest negative contributions were made by the wood and wood products, paper, publishing and printing division (-11,0% and contributing -1,3 percentage points) and the basic iron and steel, non-ferrous metal products, metal products and machinery division (-5,7% and contributing -1,2 percentage points).

The petroleum, chemical products, rubber and plastic products division was the largest positive contributor (6,7% and contributing 1,4 percentage points).

Seasonally adjusted manufacturing production increased by 1,5% in January 2026 compared with December 2025. This followed month-on-month changes of -1,3% in December 2025 and -2,2% in November 2025.

Seasonally adjusted manufacturing production decreased by 1,7% in the three months ended January 2026 compared with the previous three months. Seven of the ten manufacturing divisions reported negative growth rates over this period. The following divisions reported the largest negative contributions:

• basic iron and steel, non-ferrous metal products, metal products and machinery (-3,3% and contributing -0,7 of a percentage point); 
• motor vehicles, parts and accessories and other transport equipment (-6,4% and contributing -0,5 of a percentage point); and 
• food and beverages (-1,7% and contributing -0,4 of a percentage point).

Sales: results for January 2026

Seasonally adjusted manufacturing sales increased by 2,8% in January 2026 compared with December 2025. This followed month-on-month changes of -4,5% in December 2025 and -0,7% in November 2025.

Seasonally adjusted manufacturing sales decreased by 3,3% in the three months ended January 2026 compared with the previous three months. The largest negative contributions were made by the motor vehicles, parts and accessories and other transport equipment division (-15,8% and contributing -2,4 percentage points) and the food and beverages division (-1,9% and contributing -0,5 of a percentage point).

There is clearly much work which needs to be done to get the economy firing. 

What are the trends you are seeing in South African trade? 

As a growing voice in the South African trade environment, we want to invite our community to give us their “on-the-ground” experiences around what they are seeing when it comes to trade relationships with our key partners. We invite you to reach out to us with your latest news and thought leadership columns to help inform better decision-making.