WATCH: Improving Intra-BRICS Trade
South Africa’s agricultural sector has once again proven to be the bedrock of the nation’s export economy. New data for 2025 reveals that agricultural exports hit a staggering record of US$15.1 billion, a 10% increase year-on-year. This achievement is particularly remarkable given the “geoeconomic headwinds” the sector has faced, including infrastructure constraints at the Port of Cape Town and a shifting tariff landscape in the United States.
However, as we move further into 2026, the conversation is shifting from what we grew to where it is going.
The US Challenge and the “Early Harvest” with China
While the US remains a critical high-value market, particularly for our citrus and wine industries, the recent imposition of 30% “Liberation Day” tariffs has sent a clear signal to Pretoria: diversification is no longer a luxury—it is a survival strategy.
In response, South Africa has aggressively courted its BRICS partners. The signing of the China-South Africa Framework Agreement on Economic Partnership in February 2026 marks a watershed moment. With an “Early Harvest” deal expected by the end of March, South African exporters are eyeing duty-free access to the world’s largest consumer market—a move that could significantly offset losses felt in the West.
The Middle East: A Vital “Third Pillar”
Adding a layer of urgency to this diversification is the escalating volatility in the Middle East. Recent geopolitical tensions involving Iran and the West have unsettled global oil markets and threatened the stability of the Strait of Hormuz—a passage responsible for nearly 20% of global oil and a third of the world’s fertilizer trade.
For South African agribusinesses, the Middle East is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it is our fastest-growing export frontier, accounting for roughly 17% of our agricultural export value in late 2025. On the other hand, any sustained conflict in the Gulf threatens the very inputs (fuel and fertilizer) that allow our farmers to remain competitive.
The strategy is now clear: South Africa must maintain its delicate balancing act—preserving its long-standing ties with the US and UK, while rapidly scaling its presence in China, India, and Saudi Arabia.
Expert Insight: Wandile Sihlobo on the Road Ahead
To help our readers navigate these complex trade waters, we are featuring an essential briefing from Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist at Agbiz and a leading voice on African agricultural land and trade.
In the video below, Sihlobo breaks down the 2025 record performance, the specific commodities driving our growth, and why the “Pivot to the East” is the defining theme for 2026.
Watch the full analysis below:
