SME exporters lose two-thirds of Black Friday demand as US tariffs hit hard 

New US tariffs killed the Black Friday peak small South African exporters would normally expect in November, the SME Export Index* shows.

Says Craig Lowman, CEO and co-founder of South African international shipping platform TUNL, “In a normal year, Black Friday is a clear peak. The US-bound gross monthly volume (GMV) of shipments for Black Friday 2024 was around 60% above average monthly shipments. This year, after the new US tariffs and the loss of the $800 de minimis threshold, Black Friday came in 46% below the monthly average, and down 66% year-on-year.”

He describes the impact as “catastrophic” because instead of a strong seasonal peak, SA businesses that rely on US sales have lost a key contribution to their annual turnover.

“While most of South Africa’s businesses experienced a knockout domestic Black Friday, the period was not successful for South African brands that ship to the US,” says TUNL COO Aretha Cooper. “This is directly due to tariffs, which impact small businesses disproportionately. They simply do not have the finances to reduce the tariff impact on their US customers, and have to pass the costs along to consumers.”

Traditionally, October, November and December are peak months for small exporters as Americans shop for Thanksgiving, Black Friday and the festive season. This year, gifts from SA seem not to be on US shoppers’ radars, as they come to terms with what it will cost them to import even small parcels from South Africa.

“The US tariff changes remain in place and the Supreme Court of Appeals is yet to make a finding on their legality. In the meantime, their impact on South African SMEs is clear: businesses that export to the US are in for a tough festive season and an even tougher 2026,” Cooper concludes. 

About the SME Export Index

 The SME Export Index is based on real-life export figures measured in gross merchandise value (GMV) of 1,850 South African SMEs who were exporting to the US before trade policy changes in 2025. (The balance of TUNL’s 3,000-odd merchant customers ship to more than 160 other countries.) These policy changes have materially impacted South African exporters. Possibly due to easier access to data, media have focused on large organisations in the steel, agriculture, and automotive industries, leaving SMEs and consumer brands invisible in the tariff debate. The SME Export Index provides the missing picture: a monthly barometer of how tariffs affect small exporters and global brands from South Africa. The fixed April 2025 baseline cohort of 1,850 merchants ensures data stability and credibility.