New index reveals 46% drop in South African SME export value to the US
Cape Town, 20 October 2025 – Exports to the United States have dropped 46% since April 2025, with small direct-to-consumer (D2C) businesses hit hardest. This is according to the SME Export Index, launched today by South African international shipping platform TUNL.
The SME Export Index* is believed to be the first index to track the true impact of US tariffs on South African SMEs. It is based on real shipping volumes from a fixed cohort of 1,850 South African exporters, and provides a monthly barometer of how tariffs are affecting small South African businesses that ship globally. These include household names like Ciovita, Versus Socks, Freedom of Movement, Old School Brand, and Melvill & Moon.
Says Craig Lowman, TUNL CEO and co-founder: “Although the new 30% reciprocal tariffs were announced in April, consumers were largely shielded by the $800 de minimis waiver, which allowed packages valued at under $800 to enter the US duty-free.”
Sharp drop in exports
This waiver was revoked on 29 August 2025, meaning all packages are now charged a tariff, irrespective of the value of the goods. Combined with the reciprocal tariffs, this significant change has led to a sharp drop-off in US shipments in September as US consumers balk at import costs.
“Our data shows a 46% drop in South African SME export volumes to the US last month, compared to the 1 April 2025 baseline, which we chose because it was just before the new tariffs were announced,” comments Lowman.
“SMEs represent jobs, entrepreneurship, and the future of South African cultural exports,” he continues. “The US tariffs have landed like a sledgehammer on our merchant community of small exporters, who are being priced out of the US market.”
The US has traditionally been a big growth market for local SMEs. However, with tariffs at this level, it’s almost impossible to compete on price without destroying margins, TUNL COO Aretha Cooper comments.
“For SMEs, there’s just no room to absorb that kind of cost,” she says. “This is a global macroeconomic situation and affects many small businesses around the world.”
Transparent costs
“We believe transparent costs are critical to convert browsers into buyers, which is why we are helping local SMEs with the tools to clearly display duties and taxes at their checkouts,” Cooper adds. “For some merchants, however, it makes more sense to pivot their exports to other geographies, where existing trade agreements can provide relief from duties.”
Says Mark Fanner, owner of Fanner Guitar Works, which exports handmade ukuleles, guitars and frames: “It absolutely destroyed my business. The first weeks after the new tariffs, there were no orders from the States. We now have to add about 39% to every shipment, between tariffs, duties and fees. Sales are down roughly 50% and our refund rate has tripled since August.”
TUNL will release data from the SME Export Index monthly, to ensure SMEs’ voices remain part of the national tariff conversation.
What has unfolded in the past year with regards to the export values with the US and South Africa
On April 2nd 2025, effective April 5th 2025, Executive Order 14257 introduced a 10% global baseline tariff. All SME exports including wine, apparel, food, homeware and beauty faced at least 10% duty unless excluded. While planned for April 9th 2025 but only came into effect August 8th 2025: South Africa assigned a 30% reciprocal tariff. Since being delayed twice, most SA SME exports have faced a 30% duty at the US border.
Announced on July 30th 2025 though only effective August 29th 2025: Suspension of the $800 de minimis threshold. Every parcel, regardless of size, now attracts duties and entry fees. This is a heavy blow for SMEs selling items like single handbags, skincare kits and cases of wine directly to consumers (D2C).
Upcoming for November 5th 2025: The US Supreme Court will hear an hour of oral arguments about the legality of the tariffs, in two cases that have been consolidated into a single hearing. One case is brought against President Trump by educational toy company Learning Resources Inc, and the other is brought by President Trump against premium alcohol importer and distributor V.O.S. Selections
* About the SME Export Index
The SME Export Index is based on real-life export figures measured in gross merchandise value (GMV) of 1,850 South African SMEs who were exporting to the US before trade policy changes in 2025. (The balance of TUNL’s 3,000-odd merchant customers ship to more than 160 other countries.) These policy changes have materially impacted South African exporters. Possibly due to easier access to data, media have focused on large organisations in the steel, agriculture, and automotive industries, leaving SMEs and consumer brands invisible in the tariff debate. The SME Export Index provides the missing picture: a monthly barometer of how tariffs affect small exporters and global brands from South Africa. The fixed April 2025 baseline cohort of 1,850 merchants ensures data stability and credibility. You can find the index at sme-export-index.lovable.app
